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2020–2030 Goals and Predictions

I’m still at the start, and the mist in front of me heavily obscures my vision.

Life is not a dress rehearsal—this is probably it. Make it count. (The days are long but the decades are short)

This was spurred on by the work of Sam Altman, Thomas Frank, and countless others.

Life goals

  • Get a job sustainable enough for positive cashflow and nest egg building
  • Move into apartment
    • Move into apartment outside of college
  • Marry

Everything feels up in the air right now. I’m still at the start, and the mist in front of me heavily obscures my vision.

Travel Goals

Continue building a list of places I want to visit.

  • California (January 8, 2021)
    • The Interval
  • The Library of Congress
  • Japan
  • Germany
  • Brazil
  • China
  • France
  • India

Habit Goals

  • Do a workout 100 days in a row
  • Read 25 pages a day for 100 days in a row
  • Write 500 words 100 days in a row
  • Do something out of my comfort zone 100 days in a row

Things I want to learn

Predictions

Inspired by Long Bets, Prediction Book, and Jeff Bezos.

What’s going to change? What’s not going to change?

  • Phones will not significantly evolve and will remain pictures on glass. (2010–2020 saw larger displays, thinner bezels, removal of physical buttons, more cameras, and more power, but no change in how we interact.)
  • No device will fully replace the smartphone—we’ll still be carrying them around.
  • Wearables will become the new frontier
    • VR gear will become part of the larger culture
      • A metaverse created mostly by/for the youth will be the growth loop of VR adoption.
      • VR gear won’t have significantly more interactivity than what we see today. Only sight and sound information.
    • AR gear will become part of the larger culture.
      • AR usage will still be mostly niche and business applications.
  • There will be no physical war-waging on or from the United States that widely captivates citizen attention.
  • There will be some form of large-scale attack on the US in either Space or Cyber domain that captivates citizen attention.

  • There will not be a collective celebration from United States citizens on any matter.
  • Approval will shift from brick-and-mortar Universities to education provided by individuals and companies.

I think the larger take is I don’t expect a collective citizenry from the United States. It’s fractured, and I expect it to become more so.

My final predictions.

  • The US empire will continue to decline in power.
  • As other nations citizenry get online, wealth and power will shift away from the US.